Ten reasons to look forward to '22
full clickbait mode because the dumpster fire has to burn out eventually
Believe me, I thought this year would be better than this, but I never expected anything more in 2021 than the wild card game. If you thought we were going to be better than the Dodgers this year, you were smoking our own shit. If you thought we were going to be better than the Giants, you are me.
So am I disappointed? A little. But worse, watching the games isn’t any fun anymore.
Half the morning today I still kind of believed they’re going to make the wild card game—I don’t know what the hell is wrong with me—but then I remember we’re starting JAKE TAKE YOUR MASK OFF I’M TRYING TO THROW DELICIOUS MEATBALLS HERE ARRIETA tonight. Which leads me to the first of ten reasons why next year is, and always was, our year. (And with any luck the first of many.)
No way the pitching staff endures this level of injuries again
Hiring Larry Rothschild as pitching coach was the worst transaction of the last five years, worse than the Hosmer contract. It’s like when you work at a start-up and they hire a CFO who bankrupted a car dealership and a bankrupted a grocery store and you’re like ‘dude wtf’ and they go ‘well shit man, this guy’s been a CFO for decades.’ Yeah, he got short-term results, but in my book he’s villain number 1 this season. Rothschild severely rolled back Blake Snell’s career progress for a few months. We led the league in pitcher injuries. Dinelson Lamet may never be a starter again. Chris Paddack maybe shouldn’t be.
Also, Yu seems to have pulled it back together without sticky stuff (throwing without it no doubt contributed to his back injury) and so has Musgrove.
Therefore the bullpen shouldn’t collapse late in the season like it has this year
Emilio Pagan has been blowing games like gum bubbles in the bullpen lately but he had been more than solid until recently, even if he did give up the occasional bomb. Most of the bullpen has been overused because of injuries to the starting staff. The Friars are second in innings pitched by relievers this year, trailing only the Rays 639.2-619.1—and those motherfuckers only have one starting pitcher. Is it any surprise relief pitching suddenly became our biggest weakness? Alright, maybe Johnson should have pitched last night instead of Pagan, but we’ll save the manager for last.
The DH is happening
If any team could have used the DH the last couple months it’s the overcrowded Padres. There’s no way to prove this but it seems clear that lack of playing time, playing out of position and lack of clarity about their roles has impacted everyone but Machado (Manny’s slumps have mostly been bad luck, he could easily have won the MVP this year over Tatis). Pham looks less pissed suddenly after playing three straight games. Wil looks more confused than usual. For a whole month Trent Grisham couldn’t hit a ball onto the grass between the stands, much less where a fielder wasn’t.
Oh, and you know who might play some DH? Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer will never be the starting first baseman again. (Please, baseball gods…let me will this shit into existence.) I see three possibilities: Hosmer is traded, Hosmer platoons at DH and first base, or Hosmer mostly either DHs or rides the bench.
I actually don’t know if he’d be a liability as DH. His track record doesn’t indicate much, mind, but his launch angle has been in the process of improving since 2019 (and it’s been a rollercoaster, but he seems committed to trying, his way). This dude is the ultimate irrational confidence guy on defense, but he’s so so bad that I wonder if it’s a true struggle for him. Shortstops who can hit are super-premium because it’s so hard to play the position, and players often talk about how difficult it is to focus on hitting when you’re playing out of position. Eric Hosmer is always out of position. His position is the batter’s box, and only when he’s on. I choose to believe if he rarely has to focus on playing first base, and we’re forced to keep him (who the fuck is going to take that contract even at 14 mil a year), his OPS will be .800.
Speaking of pitchers, they don’t have to hit either…and Caratini will hit less too
No matter how frustrating Hosmer is at the dish, at least he’s better than pitchers and Victor Caratini. Granted, our bench has sucked at hitting as a whole, but we’ll get to that. Caratini on the other hand, even though he’s better than Hedges, is not optimal. Austin Nola can’t throw a guy out but it’s looking a lot like we’ll carry three catchers next year including Campy and Nola will be our right handed DH.
Our pitching staff is hot garbage at the plate. Musgrove has been quite unlucky but everyone else can barely bunt. I honestly think having to hit has affected Darvish’s pitching alongside the sticky ban. Our pitcher OPS is actually league average but that drops to the last few when you take away the magical Slamerena moment.
And yeah, every team’s pitchers suck at hitting but the other contenders have a solid #8 hitter most of the time. That has generally not been the case for the Padres. It’s demoralizing for the rest of the lineup when every other inning is basically a wash. (Although shout out to Vic for putting the bat on it yesterday, not shout out for running to second base like my great uncle.)
Ha-Seong Kim will get more at bats
I think with nine guys in the lineup instead of eight, probably no Pham and likely no Adam Frazier (who will cost more than he’s worth), Kim will get more playing time in 2022…and he will be more ready after a year in the league. Kim’s sports twin is Tottenham Hotspur’s Hueng-Min Son: they both became massive celebrities in Korea for being ultra-handsome, bubbly, fun-loving and the best player in their respective sports, but when Son first showed up on the big stage at Tottenham he looked frustrated by a lack of playing time and didn’t live up to the hype with a serious face on. Several years later, he now speaks great English and is one of the best players in the world. I don’t have those expectations for Kim but I think he’ll hit for more average and power next year.
Fernando Tatis might even play a full season
We all saw the dugout video from yesterday. He’s still a kid.
And kids say things like ‘I’m not gonna get the surgery.’ Maybe he won’t, I don’t know, but he probably will. And even if he doesn’t, now they have a better feel for the issue and have fully diagnosed the problem.
I don’t think he’ll be in the outfield next year. I think Kim might be though, if he hits too well to bench.
Mackenzie Gore might be okay
I don’t know if that proves anything about our player development and repair, but I do know that when he (christ, finally) makes his debut, it won’t be under Larry Rothschild.
There will be more playoff spots
Don’t forget under the new CBA there almost certainly will be six playoff spots per league. Not that that would guarantee us a playoff spot playing this year the way they’ve performed lately, but it will certainly take a bit of pressure off, and will mean we won’t have to stress about being in the NL Best.
If they don’t make the playoffs this year and this coaching staff still comes back they’ll be on a hot seat off the bat
Jayce Tingler is…still learning to manage a baseball team, let’s put it that way. I don’t think Tingler’s getting fired, and considering the injuries caused by bad luck and bad coaching I’m not totally convinced he should be. Although I think we’re all leaning that way. But if this season’s collapse really did have to do with not playing for their manager, the beginning of next year’s not necessarily going to be wildly successful, and in that case Preller won’t be able to hold off Seidler much longer.
Yeah, it turns out the window was only cracked when we thought it was flung wide open. But it’s not about to close any time soon.